Across Sectors is our blog series discussing common topics of discussion with a wide variety of
our public, private, and non-profit clients.
In a typical 4 Steps foresight workshop, we ask participants to share trends that are affecting their organizations' work, their broader industry, or geographic location. And, typically, we have at least one trend on the board that says "rising crime", despite statistics showing a dramatic national decrease in crime over the last 30 years.
This is not an anomaly. Gallup polls show that Americans largely believe that "there is more crime in the U.S. than there was the year before".
Context is important, of course.
There are certain types of crime that are increasing, like the theft of personal information. And depending on where you live, regional statistics may show an overall rising crime rate in your area. Additionally, these graphs from Pew show an uptick in crime in 2022, so it would also be accurate to say that crime has risen, in the short term. (Though it would be equally important to note that 2020-21 statistics were effected by the pandemic, and this may just show the return to pre-pandemic levels.)
In a workshop, it's not necessarily important we fact-check or debate each trend that gets put on the board. It is important, however, that we have accurate data to craft a narrative that reflects reality. As we move through the 4 Steps, our understanding of the current momentum of change is very important for shaping our images of possible futures.
Questions to consider: Are there trends important to our organization that may be misunderstood by the leadership team? What additional context would be helpful? What is our strategy to ensure we have the correct information to guide our decision making process?
To learn more about our 4 steps workshop and how we use the Past and Present to plan for the future, drop us a note.
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